Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.818874 0.959748 1.117525 1.307352 1.529611 1.781704 2.089511
2024-10-20 0.566267 0.743061 0.964338 1.261778 1.651559 2.145618 2.820626
2024-10-27 0.432507 0.615083 0.862409 1.222233 1.733242 2.434457 3.472738
2024-11-03 0.362269 0.549936 0.821004 1.241545 1.879110 2.812288 4.287567
2024-11-10 0.328182 0.527084 0.830758 1.328818 2.127830 3.364476 5.433715
2024-11-17 0.291859 0.492892 0.815355 1.371113 2.308813 3.834260 6.519530
2024-11-24 0.256451 0.453340 0.783667 1.379269 2.431437 4.222592 7.524850
2024-12-01 0.224503 0.413940 0.745199 1.367893 2.515568 4.552933 8.473139
2024-12-08 0.198783 0.381228 0.712844 1.360969 2.603837 4.898400 9.493751
2024-12-15 0.179819 0.357893 0.693589 1.374250 2.729284 5.325235 10.724483
2024-12-22 0.156394 0.322356 0.646172 1.325925 2.727828 5.509087 11.504178
2024-12-29 0.151229 0.322395 0.667612 1.416931 3.015840 6.296627 13.616467
2025-01-05 0.132380 0.291879 0.624397 1.370695 3.018348 6.515052 14.590577
2025-01-12 0.116069 0.264485 0.584078 1.325228 3.016996 6.727757 15.592316
2025-01-19 0.102355 0.240736 0.548143 1.283827 3.017870 6.944057 16.633608
2025-01-26 0.094916 0.230197 0.539920 1.304127 3.162337 7.501281 18.553347
2025-02-02 0.092962 0.232295 0.560802 1.395823 3.488724 8.524585 21.753288
2025-02-09 0.088063 0.226475 0.562169 1.440262 3.706370 9.319039 24.507735
2025-02-16 0.081572 0.215685 0.549951 1.448832 3.834964 9.912359 26.837872
2025-02-23 0.074703 0.202887 0.530906 1.436879 3.908306 10.375219 28.892760
2025-03-02 0.068776 0.191728 0.514529 1.429604 3.993034 10.879480 31.139453
2025-03-09 0.064376 0.184095 0.506385 1.443558 4.137953 11.564843 34.001339
2025-03-16 0.057724 0.169186 0.476601 1.392784 4.093788 11.726405 35.382937